Startling paper by Pete Riley on the possibility of massive solar flare, or Carrington event happening-
Key Points
- Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12%
- Space physics datasets often display a power-law distribution
- Power-law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events
Pete Riley
Predictive Science,San Diego,California,USA
This paper predicts a one in eight chance of a massive plasma solar flare from the sun could hit the earth in the next decade. Such an event known as a Carrington event could destroy electricity grids worldwide. The Carrington event causes high currents to flow on large grids and can destroy transformers. The last major event was is 1859.
Mike B Hopkins 